In the wake of the earthquake and subsequent radiation leaks from the nuclear power plant in Japan, my thoughts jumped back to this prediction from our discussion of Herman Kahn's predictions in The Fortune Sellers and in our lecture (Sherden, 1998). One of his predictions was the use of nuclear explosives for excavation and power. We have nuclear power, but the leaks from Japan's Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant have lead to a spate of reactionary monologues on talk radio and online. Driving home from work, I heard one of the "talking heads" scream "I WANT COAL. KEEP BURNING COAL UNTIL THERE IS NOT A BRICK LEFT!" I don't know the name of the particular announcer, but the sentiment is not unique.


Although the disaster zone is in Japan, the US media seems focused more on possible damage to the US than I would have anticipated. Two of the top 8 articles (25%) of the articles from a recent CNN.com search discussed possible implications to the US from leaking radiation. One of the remaining articles focused on evacuation of US citizens within a certain radius of the reactors. The media focus on the hazards and their potential to spread to the US feeds the hysteria of the groups that think nuclear power generation should never have been allowed.


One of the forces that helped nuclear power generation succeed was the economic incentives created by inexpensive power usage. Political forces also come to bear - government regulation of utilities leads to close scrutiny of the actions of those companies. In some cases, nuclear power plants are government owned and operated; in others government funding subsidized the building of the plants. In Japan, nuclear power allows for generation of power for the millions living there. The close proximity to water has been a key component of the geographic placement of nuclear power plants, and as an island nation, Japan has plenty of access to land near water.


Forces also exist that limit the potential of nuclear energy uses. Fears of what the radiation leaks will do in the long term limit the availability of future excavators and power companies to construct reactors or nuclear bombs for business purposes. Another negative potential impact of this type of event is the reduction in funding for nuclear-based research. Nuclear fission reactions generate enormous energy, and researchers have worked diligently to make the end results better - more power generation, safer and lower quantities of radioactive waste, etc. Continuing to provide funding for research is necessary to make the technology safer. The US funded a long-running set of projects (Project Plowshare) that explored alternate uses of nuclear explosions. Although many of the options showed promise in the projects, eventually the political climate changed and the research was abandoned (Madrigal, 2009). Existing political opposition is coupled with concerns for long-term environmental impact. These issues will limit the potential for the complete fulfillment of Kahn's prophesy. In fact, given sufficient pressure, the uses we have seen for nuclear power may regress in the long run.


This may actually prove to be a positive end result, although the time-line may be 50+ years in the making. If the pressure caused by medical and environmental concerns from radiation forces the eventual closure of nuclear power plants, perhaps more funding and attention will be available for sustainable energy initiatives. Solar power and other alternatives may be the beneficiaries of this tragedy.




References:


Madrigal, A. (2009, April 10). 7 (Crazy) Civilian Uses for Nuclear Bombs. Retrieved March 17, 2011, from Wired Science: http://www.wired.com/wiredscience/2009/04/yourfriendatom/



Sherden, W. A. (1998). The Fortune Sellers. New York: John Wiley & Sons, Inc.